I'm writing this because I was playing Super Smash Bros. Project M with a friend and I told him to stop doing "unsafe" moves. He is great at Super Smash Bros., but he is naturally good at video games and doesn't always know why he is good at them.
Safe and Unsafe moves are somewhat of a complex idea but the core of the idea lies in the animation frames. Essentially, a safe attack is one that the opponent will be very unlikely to punish if you throw it out. An unsafe attack is when you are extremely likely to be punished for using the attack if you throw it out.
When people say an attack is "Safe" and "unsafe," it usually means that if you and your opponent are in a completely neutral state then a safe attack will probably not be punished but an unsafe move is likely to leave you vulnerable. A safe move will usually have really short startup frames and really short recovery frames. The light punch in Street Fighter and most other fighting games is a safe attack. It starts up really quickly, and ends really quickly.
Block and Whiff are also important when it comes to whether a move is safe and unsafe. When you connect an attack, your opponent will go into hitstun. During hitstun, they aren't able to do anything. However, if an attack is blocked the opponent goes into blockstun or guardstun. Blockstun and guardstun are the same thing as hitstun only they keep the opponent in the block or guard animation for a moment. Blockstun is usually much shorter than hitstun. So, when an attack with a long animation is blocked, the opponent will usually be out of blockstun before the recovery frames are over and the opponent will have a chance to attack back, usually for much more damage than whatever damage you were about to do with your original attack. Newer players (especially me when I first started playing) have trouble understanding this concept. Fighting games involve both offense and defense and when you throw out moves that are unsafe on block, you are leaving your defense completely open for a second.
When you whiff an attack, it goes through the entire animation of the attack. Therefore, if it is an attack that has a long animation, the attack can be punished. Crouching heavy kicks are really good attacks in Street Fighter 4, but if they whiff, they can usually be punished by a crouching heavy kick or something much more damaging. In Smash Bros Melee, Smash attacks and charging attacks are usually very unsafe on whiff.
However, sometimes moves that are unsafe on block can be safe(r) from a certain distance. Blockstun usually includes pushback where a character receives some momentum from the attack that they blocked. If the pushback moves the character far enough away, they won't be able to punish with an attack. Many powerful attacks are unsafe up close, but relatively safe from far away.
Unsafe moves can be made safer through mix-ups and set-ups too. I'll probably write another article on these two concepts but they are important to touch upon briefly now. If you put your opponent in a situation where they have multiple things to defend against, this is a mix-up. Sometimes unsafe attacks can be made safer in mix-ups because the opponent is more likely to attempt to defend one of the attacks you threw out. For example: in Street Fighter, Ryu can throw out a fireball and the opponent is likely to jump over it. Ryu can then throw out the Shoryuken, which is really unsafe, and the opponent will likely get hit by it. This mix-up could also be considered a set-up because it forces the opponent into a situation where they are likely to get hit for pretty big damage. This is just one example of how an unsafe attack can be used effectively.
Realize that no attack is really safe in fighting games. At any point in time, if you press a button, there is a chance that your opponent pressed a button a few frames before you did and you might get hit because their attack comes out faster than yours. There is a time and place for unsafe attacks too. Unsafe attacks are just not a great idea when you and your opponent are in a neutral state.
To figure out if a move is safe or unsafe, it helps to know the frame data of the move, but it is not necessary. If you throw out an attack and then hold block but the opponent still punishes you for it, you can be pretty sure the move was unsafe. Throw that attack out less if this happens. Trial and error can still be the best teacher in fighting games.
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